Identify the business exposure
Begin with a specific market, supplier dependency, route, policy question, or operating plan. A general country briefing is different from an assessment of what could affect a particular business.
Build distinct possibilities
Describe a small set of plausible developments with meaningful differences for the decision. State the assumptions behind each scenario and avoid treating an illustrative scenario as a forecast or confirmed event.
Choose indicators with a purpose
For each scenario, specify observable developments that would warrant reassessment. Record what the indicator can establish and what it cannot. A monitoring arrangement needs its own agreed sources, cadence, coverage, and responsibilities.
Plan proportionate responses
Identify options the business could evaluate if assumptions change. Note which decisions require local expertise, legal advice, operational verification, or further research. Revisit scenarios as evidence changes.
This guide explains a research approach. It is general information and does not assess a specific business, market, or live event.
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